NIMET’S 2026 SCP PREDICTS LONGER-THAN-NORMAL RAINFALL, WARNS FARMERS AGAINST EARLY CULTIVATION

The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, SAN, has said that normal annual rainfall amounts are expected in most parts of Nigeria in 2026 when compared to the long-term average.

Keyamo stated this in a keynote address at the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) presentation held in Abuja on Tuesday, February 10, 2026.

The Seasonal Climate Prediction provides comprehensive climate forecasts designed to guide agricultural planning, water resource management, and disaster preparedness across critical sectors of the Nigerian economy. It also offers projections on key climate variables, including rainfall distribution and temperature patterns for the year.

The 2026 SCP, themed “Climate Science for Sustainable Development,” outlines variations in rainfall onset, cessation, duration, and intensity across different parts of the country.

According to the forecast, early rainfall onset is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa, and Taraba States. Conversely, a late onset of rainfall is predicted for Borno State.

Rainfall cessation is expected to occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi, and Niger States. However, a delayed end to the rainy season is anticipated in Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa, and Kaduna States.

Dr. Anosike

A longer-than-normal rainy season is projected for Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe, and Taraba States. In contrast, parts of Borno, Yobe, and Niger States are expected to experience a shorter-than-normal rainy season.

NiMet further forecasts above-normal rainfall in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom States, and the Federal Capital Territory. Below-normal rainfall is, however, expected in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo, and Ogun States.

During the March to May period, severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days are likely in parts of Oyo and Ogun States. Moderate dry spells are predicted across Ekiti, Kogi, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Abia, Cross River, Delta States, as well as parts of Kogi and Kwara States.

For the June–July–August season, severe dry spells of up to 21 days are expected in parts of Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Kebbi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Plateau, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara States.

The Little Dry Season (LDS), popularly known as the “August Break,” is forecast to begin by late July and is expected to be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and parts of Oyo States.

The number of days with little or no rainfall during this period is projected to range between 28 and 40 days. A moderate LDS effect is expected over Ondo and parts of Kwara and Edo States.

NiMet also predicts that both daytime and nighttime temperatures will be warmer than the long-term average across most parts of the country in January, February, March, and May 2026.

The Minister advised farmers and stakeholders engaged in rain-fed agriculture and other rainfall-dependent activities to rely on the predicted onset dates outlined in the SCP or consult NiMet for appropriate guidance to avoid losses associated with premature cultivation.

Goodwill messages were delivered by the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development and NiMet’s international partners, including the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Prof. Celeste Saulo.

Members of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria also shared testimonials in various Nigerian languages, recounting the effectiveness of NiMet’s SCP in improving agricultural decision-making.

As NiMet marked 140 years of service to Nigeria, past Directors-General of the agency were recognised for their contributions.

The event’s highlights included the official launch of the 2026 SCP report by the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, with support from the Director-General of NiMet, Prof. Charles Anosike, and other key stakeholders.