Naira May Trade Below ₦1,000/$1- Otedola Cites Dangote Refinery Impact

Billionaire investor Femi Otedola has expressed optimism that the naira could strengthen to below ₦1,000 against the U.S. dollar before the end of the year, citing the full-scale operations of the Dangote Group refinery as a major catalyst.

In a post on X, Otedola congratulated Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, on achieving the refinery’s full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, describing the milestone as a game-changer for Nigeria’s economy.

He noted that the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily marks a historic shift from decades of dependence on imported petroleum products.

“With domestic refining now fully underway, the pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange market is expected to ease considerably,” Otedola stated. He added that reduced demand for dollars to fund fuel imports could significantly strengthen the naira, making sub-₦1,000/$1 exchange rates increasingly realistic before year-end.

For years, Nigeria relied heavily on imported refined petroleum products, a situation that drained foreign reserves and intensified demand for foreign currency. According to Otedola, large-scale domestic refining will reverse that trend, improve energy security, and stabilise the currency market.

He further revealed that Dangote has initiated a $12 billion expansion project to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The expansion will also scale up petrochemical production, including 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene, a vital input in detergent manufacturing.

Describing the development as more than an industrial milestone, Otedola said it represents a broader economic reset capable of strengthening the naira, stimulating manufacturing, and reducing Nigeria’s exposure to global supply, shocks.

The projection comes at a time when the federal government is implementing sweeping economic reforms aimed at stabilising the currency and boosting domestic production.