Analysis
CBN’S ECONOMIC REFORMS WIN IMF PRAISE AMID SIGNS OF DURABLE RECOVERY
By Dr. Ibrahim Modibbo
After years of economic volatility and uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest Article IV Consultation affirmed a new reality about Nigeria’s economy under the Tinubu administration. The IMF declared in clear terms that Nigeria is making meaningful progress following a series of significant structural reforms to restore financial discipline and credibility.
The IMF commended the Tinubu administration for its bold and politically difficult policies that have improved macroeconomic stability and enhanced resilience. The multilateral financial institution named the critical pillar of Nigeria’s economic reset and resurgence as the restoration of the independence being enjoyed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Governor Yemi Cardoso.
Reeling from years of excessive fiscal influence for deficit financing, the Central Bank of Nigeria has under Cardoso curtailed the use of the “ways and means” facility, which ought to be an emergency funding channel, but was abused and eventually led to the advances ballooning beyond statutory limits. As of April 2025, the CBN had cut the advances by nearly 90 percent, demonstrating what the IMF called the “discontinuation of deficit monetisation” and a step to “strengthen central bank governance to set the institutional foundation for inflation targeting.”
Also, the IMF acknowledged that the CBN’s commitment to price stability is yielding tangible and positive results, with headline inflation having peaked above 40 percent, dropping to 22.9 percent in May 2025. Specifically, the IMF noted that the CBN is “appropriately maintaining a tight monetary policy stance, which should continue until disinflation becomes entrenched.”
Another plus, that the IMF identified are the reforms initiated by the apex bank in the foreign exchange market that supported price discovery and liquidity. Commendably, the CBN, under the leadership of Governor Cardoso, had dismantled the long-standing multiple exchange-rate regime, replacing it with a “willing-buyer, willing-seller” framework supported by a digital trading platform (B-Match).
The results have been anything but transformative. As the IMF noted, “gross and net international reserves increased in 2024, with a strong current account surplus and improved portfolio inflows.” It added that the FX premium, or what is understood as the gap between the official and parallel markets, has fallen from over 60 percent to below 3 percent.
This has resulted in foreign inflows surging to $6.9 billion in Q1 2025, while external reserves climbed to a peak of $40.9 billion at the end of 2024, providing over eight months of import, well above benchmark thresholds. The IMF attested that “reforms to the foreign exchange market and foreign exchange interventions have brought stability to the naira.”
In January 2025, Nigeria successfully made a remarkable re-entry to the Eurobond market, its first issue in four years, reflecting, according to the IMF “a strengthened investor confidence and a resumption of portfolio inflows.” The IMF further gave a nod to the CBN’s policy initiatives to strengthen the banking system, including the ongoing process of increasing the’ minimum capital of commercial banks.
The international finance institution endorsed the CBN’s efforts to boost financial inclusion and promote capital market development. It admitted that the CBN’s recapitalisation plan will see the minimum capital of banks increasing significantly by March 2026. This move is designed to ensure banks can absorb future shocks, deepen credit access, and support the Tinubu administration’s vision for a $1 trillion economy. Simultaneously, the Governor Cardoso’s led CBN is expanding access to banking services for previously excluded demographics, through digital platforms and financial literacy programmes, such as the Women’s Financial Inclusion Initiative (Wi-Fi).
According to the IMF assessment, the Fund welcomed the progress made by the CBN in strengthening the AML/ CFT framework, it’s anti-money laundering policies and the dedication in combatting the financing of terrorism. It commended the resolve of the apex bank in tackling the remaining weaknesses that will allow Nigeria exit the FATF grey list, a designation for jurisdictions under increased monitoring by the Financial Action Task Force due to gaps in their anti-financial crime regimes.
Further significant challenges remain. Inflation, though declining, remains a burden. Infrastructure deficits, insecurity, and fiscal slippages could derail progress. The Fund “highlighted the importance of tackling security, red tape, agricultural productivity, infrastructure gaps, including boosting electricity supply, as well as improved health and education spending, and making the economy more resilient to climate events.”
In spite of all the positives recorded by the CBN under Cardoso, the IMF said more work needs to be done to ensure that the country establishes a strong foundation for sustained and inclusive growth. It advocated the tightening of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate reforms that have contributed to macroeconomic balances. The IMF also noted that in light of the challenges posed by an evolving global economic landscape, the CBN needs to put in place a nimble policymaking framework to navigate the fast-moving and volatile environment, including maintaining a strong policy coordination and communication.
Reflecting on the IMF report, Cardoso commented, saying “at a time of global uncertainty, this assessment reaffirms that responsible, forward-looking policy choices matter. It affirms that Nigeria is regaining credibility, anchoring expectations, and laying the foundation for inclusive, long-term growth. It is both an encouragement to stay the course, and a reminder that resilience and prosperity require continued discipline and vision.”
Similarly, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, while reacting to the IMF assessment, echoed Cardoso’s optimism, rgarding the ongoing reforms and the progress achieved over the past two years. He said “these reforms have contributed to notable improvements in Nigeria’s fiscal and external positions, bolstering investor confidence and strengthening the resilience of the economy.” The finance minister welcomed the IMF’s acknowledgement of advancements in the agricultural sector, particularly increased food production, which has contributed to moderating inflation.
“As of May 2025, headline inflation eased to 22.9%, while food inflation declined to 21.4%—both improvements from the higher levels recorded during the IMF mission. IMF’s positive outlook, affirms that Nigeria’s economic reforms have positioned the country to better withstand external shocks,” Edun added, giving credence to the remarkable achievements recorded by the CBN under Cardoso.
Countries hosting United States military bases in the Gulf region are increasingly facing the consequences of the escalating conflict between Iran and the United States, as missile and drone attacks spill into their territories.
Recent retaliatory strikes by Iran have targeted U.S. installations across the Middle East, including locations in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. These nations, though not direct participants in the conflict, have found themselves absorbing its impact due to their strategic hosting of American bases.
The crisis intensified following a February 28 offensive reportedly carried out by the United States in partnership with Israel against Iran, amid tensions over Tehran’s nuclear and missile programmes. In response, Iran launched widespread attacks on U.S. military assets and allied locations across the region.
In the UAE, air defence systems have intercepted hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles, along with over a thousand drones since the conflict began. However, some strikes penetrated defences, hitting key locations in Dubai and causing casualties, infrastructure damage, and flight disruptions.
Similarly, Saudi Arabia has reported repeated drone and missile attacks targeting regions including Riyadh and the Eastern Province, with most threats intercepted.
Qatar also recorded multiple attacks, including a major strike on the Ras Laffan gas facility operated by QatarEnergy, which caused significant damage and triggered emergency response efforts.
Other Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, have also intercepted numerous projectiles aimed at critical infrastructure such as airbases and airports.
Security experts say the attacks highlight the strategic risks associated with hosting foreign military bases. While such bases offer defence cooperation, training, and deterrence, they also make host nations potential targets during conflicts.
Professor Joshua Bolarinwa of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs noted that powerful nations like the United States maintain overseas bases to project influence and strengthen alliances, with dozens located across the Middle East.
However, analysts warn that the presence of these installations creates a trade-off between enhanced security cooperation and increased exposure to geopolitical conflicts.
As tensions persist, Gulf states continue to maintain a delicate balance benefiting from military partnerships while managing the growing risks of being drawn deeper into a widening regional conflict.
Analysis
Ozoro Festival Scandal Sparks National Debate on ‘Weaponised Traditions’ and Cultural Reform
The controversy surrounding the Ozoro Festival in Delta State has ignited a nationwide debate over harmful cultural practices, following viral videos showing acts of sexual violence and widespread outrage across Nigeria.
The scandal has led to the arrest of six suspects by the police, including a community leader, but many Nigerians argue that the response falls short of justice and fails to address deeper cultural issues.
Critics have described the Ozoro Alue-Do Festival as a “weaponised tradition,” accusing it of reinforcing misogyny and enabling abuse under the guise of cultural celebration. Some members of the Isoko community, however, insist the issue is being misrepresented.
A female indigene, who spoke anonymously, condemned what she described as systemic discrimination against women within the culture, alleging that harmful practices are often excused and victims silenced.
“Women are blamed even in cases of abuse, while perpetrators are shielded,” she said, pointing to long-standing traditions that, in her view, enable injustice.
But cultural analyst Anote Ajelouruo cautioned against sweeping generalisations, arguing that the festival’s origins must be understood within historical context.
He noted that fertility rites were common in many ancient societies and said isolated incidents of misconduct should not define an entire cultural heritage.
“Every society had practices shaped by limited knowledge at the time. What matters is ensuring such traditions are not hijacked or abused,” he said.
Lessons from Ibadan
Observers say reform is possible, pointing to the transformation of the Oke’Badan Festival in Ibadan, which has evolved from a chaotic and unsafe event into a structured cultural celebration.
Journalist and historian Temilade Adeyemi recalled that the festival was once notorious for harassment of women, with vulgar displays and public misconduct.
Today, however, it is widely regarded as a symbol of cultural pride, featuring organised performances and safer participation for women.
Path to Reform
Experts say any attempt to reform the Ozoro Festival must be driven by the community, with traditional leaders playing a central role in redefining its purpose.
They also stress the importance of accountability, urging authorities to ensure that those arrested are prosecuted to rebuild public trust.
Increased participation of women in planning and decision-making is seen as critical to reshaping the festival into a safer and more inclusive event.
Analysts further recommend sustained public education and media engagement to highlight positive cultural values while discouraging harmful practices.
Uncertain Future
Despite the outrage, questions remain over whether meaningful reform will take place or if the festival will continue to attract criticism.
For now, attention remains on both community leaders and law enforcement authorities, as Nigerians watch closely to see whether the incident will mark a turning point or another missed opportunity for change.
By AVM Rtd Akugbe Iyamu MNSA fsi
Extreme weather conditions are unexpected, unusual or severe weather events that fall outside normal patterns, often causing significant disruption, damage to infrastructure, and environmental destruction.
Examples include heatwaves, intense hurricanes, flooding, severe droughts, and tornadoes. These events are becoming more frequent due to climate change.
Nigeria is a country perpetually under elections frenzy: campaigning, off cycle and other electoral activities. These political manifestations always offered little attention to key areas of the environment that threatens economic growth and development, security and poverty, inequality and hunger. As of early 2026, Nigeria hosts over 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) driven from their homes by conflict, insecurity, and climate disasters. The vast majority of this displacement is concentrated in the North-East and North-West regions, with around 3,900 camps and host communities providing temporary shelter. Currently, Africa is experiencing intensified extreme weather events driven by climate change, primarily manifested as severe droughts, devastating floods, and extreme heatwaves. These events, such as the 2020-2023 Horn of Africa drought and 2024 regional flooding, are becoming more frequent, severely impacting food security, agriculture, and infrastructure.
For instance the death situation in Kenya has risen to 66 and Ethiopia 125 deaths with 11,000 displaced. This is a clear and present danger to Africa and is likely to stretch the existing response measures. At this point NIHSA, NiMet and other agencies need to be called out to show visible signs to the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction. At this point, the country need more emphasis in advising all stakeholders to shift from reactive to proactive climate-informed planning to ensure food security and protect infrastructure. Nigeria need to step up preparation against what we see coming as extreme weather in 2026. From the situations in Ethiopia and Kenya, it is obvious that 2026 will be characterized by variable rainfall and cyclone bomb. We have seen prolonged dry spells, and higher-than-average temperatures early in the year that have threatened the health and security of Nigerians. Based on the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) unveiled by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) on February 10, 2026, the country need to do more. Judging from the heavy snow in the northern hemisphere, nigeria need key preparations that include using AI for better forecasting, tailored agricultural advice, and flood warning systems.
2026 should not be treated like other years. With insecurity, poverty, inequality, high taxation, higher borrowings and higher energy costs, negligence will unravel the economy and underbelly of Nigeria energy security system. Time to act is now because there are too many negatives conflating the country and we have to solve the issues of environmental challenges because when you lack the structure, you attract rupture.
The Federal Government, through the National Orientation Agency (NOA) should be promoting the dissemination of the SCP to local farmers to ensure it directly informs field decisions.
AVM RTD AKUGBE IYAMU MNSA fsi
CONSULTANT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ANALYST ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES
PRESIDENT ASSOCIATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE PRACTITIONERS