NIGERIA BUDGETS WITHOUT BUDGETING AND THE CHALLENGES OF ASCENDING THE AMBITIOUS ONE TRILLION DOLLARS ECONOMY BY 2030

By AVM (RTD) AKUGBE IYAMU MNSA fsi

In developing countries like Nigeria where politics and elections are heightened over governance, building a budget that does not exhaust its citizens is lost in political driven noise, propaganda and motivational rhetoric. If the country want to restore her budgetary system, she need to stop treating moments of extreme economic challenges as isolated economic conditions and start reading them as symptoms.

Globally, budgets are intertwined with leadership which is shaped by in depth understanding of how economic institutions actually work because budgets operates across spheres that demand precision, discipline and credibility. In view of the foregoing, budget sustainability is not about whether a few people can endure a budget, it is about whether many can thrive within it because budgeting without budgets lead to economic burn out as most of the scaffolding is either weak or inconsistent with the country’s economic challenges and solutions.

Before looking at the issue, let’s contextualize what a budgetary process is.

Government budgeting is the systematic process of planning, forecasting, and authorizing government’s revenue (taxes, fees) and expenditures for a specific fiscal year. It acts as a financial roadmap, allocating public funds to achieve economic and social goals, providing public services, and ensuring legal accountability. Despite the leap in budgetary growth in Nigeria since 2023, the real sector of the economy which refers to the part of the sector concerned with the actual production of goods and services, including agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and construction have suffered significant decline. The real sector represents the tangible, measurable output (GDP) that satisfies human needs and desires, directly influencing employment, consumption, and economic growth. The increase in Nigeria budgets have negated this global economic system as

manufacturing in Nigeria since 2023 faced severe, turbulent contraction due to high inflation, currency devaluation, and subsidy removal, with real GDP growth slowing to 1.40% in 2023 despite high nominal figures. While Nigeria’s federal budgets have seen significant growth from 2023 to 2025: the 2023 budget was ₦21.83 trillion, increasing to ₦28.7 trillion in 2024 (plus ₦6.2 trillion supplementary, totaling ₦34.9 trillion), and rising dramatically to ₦54.99 trillion for the 2025 “Budget of Restoration,” focusing on security and infrastructure, the significant budgetary growth of the various sectors experienced lower real output in 2023-2024 facing reduced purchasing power, high operating costs, and a 54% plunge in foreign investment. This is an inconsistent pathway to climbing into the one trillion dollar club. Nigeria one trillion dollars economy is an unofficial classification into the world’s major economies with a gross domestic product (nominal GDP) of more than US$1 trillion per year. As of 2025, it included 21 countries.

For instance, agriculture, the major contributor to Nigeria GDP growth since 2023 has been characterized by slow, volatile, and, at times, negative growth, with the sector struggling against high input costs, insecurity, and climate-induced challenges such as, flash flooding. What we are witnessing is not argument about styles of actions, it is an economy negotiating with growing pains in public services and finances.

While agriculture remains a major economic driver, contributing around 25% to GDP and over 30% to employment the sector growth dropped to 1.13% in 2023, recovering slightly to 1.41% by Q2 2024. Additionally, since 2023, Nigerian SMEs have shown immense resilience despite a challenging economic environment marked by high inflation, foreign exchange volatility, and rising operational costs. The reality is that

business formation slowed with a decline to 24% in 2023 from 32% in 2022. There is no doubt that the sector remains critical contributing 96% of businesses and 84% of employment.

A progressive economy does not need fewer promotional options and strategies, it needs options and actions that travel through economic layers and space rather than trends. This requires continuous improvement in investment not just financial but intellectual. Until this happens, budgets without budgeting will keep recurring because the system keep asking poor citizens to give more of themselves that they can sustain. Whether we listen to the substance of hunger, poverty, insecurity and inequality or the noise around it will shape what kind of creative economy we become next.

AVM (RTD) AKUGBE IYAMU MNSA fsi

CONSULTANT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ANALYST ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES

PRESIDENT ASSOCIATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE PRACTITIONERS