CardinalStone Values Dangote Refinery At N77.7 Trillion Ahead Of Landmark IPO

Investment firm CardinalStone has estimated the market capitalisation of Dangote Petroleum Refinery at approximately N77.7 trillion, as the facility prepares for its highly anticipated initial public offering scheduled to open on September 14, 2026.

The valuation comes as the refinery, built at a cost of about $20 billion, moves towards becoming a publicly traded entity on the Nigerian Exchange in what is expected to be one of Africa’s largest-ever share sales.

The company is offering 4.1 billion ordinary shares at N525 per share, with the base offer expected to raise approximately N2.15 trillion if fully subscribed.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has approved the offering and registered the refinery’s existing 120.13 billion ordinary shares.

CardinalStone’s N77.7 trillion market capitalisation estimate reflects the firm’s assessment of the refinery’s value based on its financial performance and growth prospects.

The refinery has demonstrated strong operational results, generating $13.91 billion in revenue during the first six months of 2026, with gross profit of $2.50 billion, EBITDA of $2.60 billion, and net income of $1.82 billion.

The facility, located near Lagos, has reached full operating capacity of about 650,000 barrels per day and has tested output of up to 700,000 barrels per day.

Dangote has announced plans to double capacity from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day, a scale that would surpass India’s Jamnagar complex and make it the largest refinery in the world by any measure.

The expansion is expected to require approximately $14.3 billion in investment.

The IPO is deliberately pitched at ordinary Nigerian investors, with a minimum subscription of 10 shares costing 5,250 naira, or about $4.

The offering will use a Bank Verification Number-linked subscription process and digital application channels, allowing individual investors to apply without cumbersome procedures.

The listing targets as many as 10 million Nigerian investors, including lower-income earners and the refinery’s own workers.

Aliko Dangote, founder of the Dangote Group and Africa’s richest person, said the IPO represents a major milestone for the refinery and the nation.

“We are opening ownership of this strategic asset to a broader community of investors and creating an opportunity for Nigerians to participate directly in its future growth and value creation,” Dangote said.

President Bola Tinubu and the Federal Government have expressed support for the listing, viewing it as a significant step towards deepening Nigeria’s capital market and expanding domestic investment opportunities.

The refinery has already reshaped Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain, with Nigerian refined fuel imports declining 39 percent year-on-year by mid-2025.

West African imports of clean refined petroleum products fell 23 percent in a single month between April and May 2026 as the refinery reached full capacity.

For Nigerian consumers, the practical impact has been a petrol price that is no longer set by the foreign exchange cost of importing refined product from European or American refineries.

The timing of the IPO coincides with Nigeria rejoining the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index on September 21, 2026, which is expected to trigger mandatory reallocation by global tracker funds and frontier-market ETFs into Nigerian equities.

The Dangote Refinery listing could substantially alter the composition of the Nigerian Exchange, with the facility’s valuation potentially making it the largest company on the domestic market by a significant margin.

Meristem Securities has reported a fivefold increase in new trading account openings this year, driven largely by Nigerians seeking to participate in the Dangote offering.

The order book is scheduled to open upon September 14, with the offer expected to run until October 13.

The company may also increase the size of the offer if demand exceeds the initial allocation, subject to regulatory provisions, including a potential 15 percent over-allotment option.

Funds raised are expected to support the refinery’s expansion programme and broader operational objectives.

Beyond Nigeria, the Dangote Group has finalised plans for a 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery on Kenya’s Lamu coast, a $16 to $17 billion project that will serve East Africa’s entire fuel demand.

The Lagos IPO represents the first step in what could become a significant regional expansion of public ownership in the Dangote Group’s industrial assets.