International
Oil Surges 10% on Iran Conflict, Analysts Warn of Possible $100 Per Barrel Spike
Global oil prices soared on Sunday following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, with traders warning that crude could climb to $100 per barrel if disruptions to Gulf supply routes persist.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, jumped 10% in over-the-counter trading to around $80 a barrel, according to market participants. The rally comes after Brent had already climbed to $73 on Friday its highest level since July amid mounting tensions in the Middle East before the outbreak of hostilities.
Strait of Hormuz in Focus
Energy analysts say the most critical factor driving the price surge is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategically vital waterway through which more than 20% of the world’s oil supply is transported.
Following Tehran’s warning to shipping companies, most tanker operators, oil majors and trading houses have reportedly suspended crude, fuel and liquefied natural gas shipments through the strait.
Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS, said the military escalation alone supports higher prices, but the closure of Hormuz would have a far greater impact.
“We expect prices to open much closer to $100 a barrel and perhaps exceed that level if we see a prolonged outage of the Strait,” he said.
Supply Risks and OPEC+ Response
The OPEC+ alliance on Sunday agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April. However, analysts noted that the increase represents less than 0.2% of global demand and would do little to offset a major supply disruption.
According to Rystad Energy, even if Saudi Arabia diverts oil through its East-West pipeline and the UAE maximises alternative export routes, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could still remove between 8 million and 10 million bpd of crude from global markets.
Rystad projected that prices could initially jump by $20, pushing Brent to around $92 per barrel when futures trading resumes.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft said Middle Eastern leaders have cautioned Washington that a prolonged war could drive oil above $100 per barrel. Analysts at Rabobank were slightly more conservative, forecasting prices holding above $90 in the near term.
Global Ripple Effects
The crisis has prompted Asian governments and refiners to reassess emergency oil reserves and alternative supply routes. Analysts at Kpler said India may increase purchases of Russian crude to offset potential shortfalls from the Middle East.
The surge in oil prices adds to broader market volatility already triggered by the escalating conflict. Higher energy costs could intensify inflationary pressures globally, complicating economic recovery efforts in several regions.
With tensions showing little sign of easing, energy markets are bracing for a potentially prolonged period of instability that could reshape global supply flows and pricing dynamics in the weeks ahead.
A shocking breach of protocol occurred during the secret conclave that elected Pope Leo XIV last May, a new book by veteran Vatican reporters reveals.
As 133 cardinals gathered in the Sistine Chapel for their first vote, which is typically safeguarded by signal-jamming equipment to prevent outside communications, security officials detected an active mobile phone signal inside the chapel.
In a scene the authors describe as “unimaginable even for a film,” one of the older cardinals discovered a cellphone in his pocket and handed it over to security. The book, The Election of Pope Leo XIV, does not identify the cardinal or suggests he had any motive for carrying the phone but notes he was “disoriented and distressed” by the incident.
The incident is unprecedented in the history of modern papal conclaves, which require cardinals to relinquish all communication devices to ensure the election process remains secret.
Pope Leo XIV, elected on the fourth ballot with 108 votes, became the first pope from the United States. The revelation of this security lapse provides a rare behind-the-scenes glimpse into one of the world’s most secretive religious events.
International
Exiled Iranian Prince Backs U.S.-Israel Strikes, Urges Citizens to Rise Against Regime
Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has endorsed the ongoing joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iran, describing them as a form of “humanitarian intervention” aimed at dismantling the country’s ruling clerical establishment.
In a strongly worded statement released on social media, Pahlavi characterized the strikes as long-promised assistance to the Iranian people rather than an attack on the nation itself. He framed the operation as targeting what he called the Islamic Republic’s “repressive apparatus” and not the Iranian population.
“The aid that the President of the United States promised to the brave people of Iran has now arrived,” Pahlavi wrote. “This is a humanitarian intervention; its target is the Islamic Republic, not the country and great nation of Iran.”
Pahlavi also praised U.S. President Donald Trump, thanking him for what he described as support for Iranians seeking change. However, he urged Washington to take every possible precaution to minimize civilian casualties.
Calling the current moment a turning point, the exiled prince declared that the Islamic Republic was “collapsing” and appealed directly to Iran’s military, police, and security forces to withdraw their loyalty from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
“You have sworn an oath to protect Iran and its people, not a regime that has held the country hostage,” he stated, warning that those who remain aligned with the leadership risk “going down with Khamenei’s sinking ship.”
Pahlavi stopped short of calling for immediate nationwide demonstrations but suggested that large-scale protests could resume soon. He advised citizens to remain alert and await what he described as the “appropriate time” to return to the streets.
“Moments of destiny lie ahead,” he said, expressing confidence that Iranians themselves would ultimately determine the country’s future. “We are very close to final victory.”
He further indicated that he would continue communicating with supporters even if authorities attempted to restrict internet or satellite services measures previously employed during periods of unrest.
Pahlavi’s remarks echo past opposition efforts to encourage defections within Iran’s security establishment, a factor analysts say could prove decisive in shaping the country’s political trajectory amid escalating tensions.
Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, on Sunday announced that a new leadership council has officially begun operations following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
In a prerecorded message broadcast on Iranian state television, Pezeshkian said the council had “begun its work,” signalling the start of a political transition at the highest level of the Islamic Republic.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, told Al Jazeera that a new supreme leader is expected to be selected within “one or two days,” suggesting an expedited process amid mounting regional tensions.
The leadership transition comes as violence escalates between Iran and Israel. A massive explosion struck Tehran on Sunday, with the Israeli military stating it was targeting strategic sites in central parts of the capital.
Earlier in the day, Iran launched missile attacks against an expanding list of targets in Israel and several Gulf Arab states, describing the strikes as retaliation.
The rapid political developments and intensifying military exchanges have heightened fears of a broader regional confrontation in the Middle East.