CTN SPECIAL REPORT: THE CRACKING OF THE OPPOSITION — WHO STANDS WHERE?

The Week in Review

Tracking the Editorial Promise | Monday, May 4 – Saturday, May 9, 2026

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OPENING NOTE

This week, Capital Times News promised to go deeper into four critical stories: the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) Coalition, the Supreme Court fallout on the PDP and ADC, the aviation shutdown threat over N9 billion debt, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis where oil sits above $120.

We also tracked additional developments — including Atiku and Amaechi picking up ADC presidential forms, five Oyo Reps dumping the PDP, and fresh rumours of Governor Seyi Makinde eyeing a new party.

This is our accounting. No fluff. No spin. Just the truth.

1. THE NDC COALITION: OBI AND KWANKWASO MOVE FROM ADC TO NDC — 10 MILLION REGISTRATION CLAIM

What we reported last week: Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso sealed the “OK Movement” deal, with Kwankwaso agreeing to run as Obi’s vice-presidential candidate on the ADC platform.

What has changed this week:

Obi and Kwankwaso have officially moved from the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to a new platform — the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC). The NDC is now the official vehicle for their 2027 presidential ticket under the “OK Movement” banner.

The 10 million registration claim:

The NDC has made an extraordinary claim. Dr. Adefolaseye Adebayo, the South West coordinator of the Obi-Kwankwaso Movement, appeared on Arise Television on Tuesday and alleged that more than 10 million Nigerians registered with the NDC within 24 hours of Obi and Kwankwaso defecting.

No official verification has been provided, and there is no independent confirmation from any credible authority, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Political analysts have called the claim “political hyperbole” that should be taken with a grain of salt.

What this means for the opposition landscape:

The opposition is now split across two platforms rather than unified under one. The NDC carries the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket. The ADC carries Atiku Abubakar, Rotimi Amaechi, and Mohammed Hayatu-Deen — who will now face each other in the ADC primary.

This fragmentation, unless managed carefully, risks delivering 2027 to Tinubu by default.

CTN assessment: The NDC’s 10 million registration claim is unverified and should be treated with scepticism. However, the political realignment is real. Obi and Kwankwaso have successfully migrated their base to a new platform. The question now is whether the NDC can attract other major opposition figures — or whether the ADC primary will produce a candidate strong enough to challenge both Tinubu and the NDC ticket.

2. THE ADC PRIMARY: ATIKU, AMAECHI, HAYATU-DEEN PICK N90 MILLION FORMS

What has happened this week:

Three major opposition figures have officially entered the ADC presidential race.

Rotimi Amaechi picked up his Expression of Interest and Nomination forms on Friday, May 8. A high-powered delegation led by Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, who chairs the ADC Policy and Manifesto Committee, collected the forms on Amaechi’s behalf at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja.

Atiku Abubakar has also obtained his forms, with the ADC’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, confirming on Friday that the former Vice President is now in the race.

Mohammed Hayatu-Deen, a renowned economist and politician, is the third aspirant to pick up the N90 million nomination form. He received his form from the party’s National Organising Secretary, Chinedu Idigo, on Friday.

Key dates: The ADC has fixed the sale of expression of interest and nomination forms for May 6 to May 13. The presidential nomination form costs N90 million.

What the aspirants are saying:

Hayatu-Deen pledged to prioritise security, job creation, and the rising cost of living affecting millions of Nigerians. He said the 2027 election must focus on restoring economic stability and improving national security.

Amaechi emphasised the need for competence, youth inclusion, power rotation to the South, and a focus on security, the economy, and infrastructure. He said his experience in governance and infrastructure development positions him to tackle Nigeria’s challenges.

ADC’s response to Obi/Kwankwaso defection:

ADC National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi described the defection of Obi and Kwankwaso to the NDC as a “premeditated move, unrelated to the party’s internal wrangling.” Despite the ongoing disputes and pending court cases, ADC National Chairman Senator David Mark has assured members that the party will participate in the 2027 general elections.

What CTN is watching: The shape of the ADC primary contest. With three candidates — Atiku, Amaechi, and Hayatu-Deen — the race is now a three-way battle. The primary could fragment the northern and southern opposition vote unless a consensus candidate emerges.

3. SUPREME COURT FALLOUT: PDP IN CRISIS — FIVE OYO REPS QUIT, MAKINDE EYES APM

What the Supreme Court did (April 30, 2026):

A five-member panel delivered a unanimous judgment that:

· Set aside the Court of Appeal’s “status quo ante bellum” order
· Nullified the illegal Ibadan “Convention” of November 2025
· Dismissed the appeal filed by the Kabiru Turaki-led faction for lacking merit
· Directed all parties to return to the Federal High Court for accelerated hearing

What the court did NOT do: The Supreme Court did not make a final determination on who leads the PDP. Those issues were never before the court.

PDP FALLOUT — FIVE OYO REPS QUIT IN THREE DAYS

The crisis in the PDP is now hitting the National Assembly. No fewer than five members of the House of Representatives from Oyo State have quit the PDP in three days.

The departing lawmakers are:

· Najimdeen Oyedeji (Iseyin/Itesiwaju/Kajola/Iwajowa Federal Constituency)
· Adedeji Olajide (Ibadan North-West/South-West Federal Constituency)
· Abass Adigun (Ibadan North-East/South-East Federal Constituency)
· Anthony Adepoju (Ibarapa Central/North Federal Constituency)
· Ojo Makanjuola (Ogo-Oluwa/Surulere Federal Constituency)

Why they left: In his resignation letter dated May 5, 2026, addressed to the PDP Chairman in Ward 8, Adigun mentioned “the persistent internal crises that have continued to destabilise the party” as one of his reasons. Olajide said he quit after “extensive consultations” with his political associates, citing “the prevailing realities within the party structure.”

FRESH RUMOUR: SEYI MAKINDE MAY JUMP TO APM

Adding to the PDP’s crisis, reports indicate that Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde may be preparing to defect from the PDP to the Allied Peoples Movement (APM). Makinde had on Wednesday met with leaders of the APM at his residence in Ibadan.

If Makinde leaves, he would be the most prominent governor to defect from the PDP in this cycle, and his departure could trigger a wave of follow-on defections.

What CTN is watching: Any official announcement from Makinde’s camp. Also, whether other PDP governors align with him or distance themselves.

ADC — THE REUNIFIED FRONT

Unlike the PDP, the ADC has emerged from the Supreme Court ruling with greater clarity. INEC restored the David Mark-led leadership to its portal within hours of the judgment. Senator Mark is recognised as National Chairman, with Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary.

However, caveats remain. A separate Federal High Court order from April 29, 2026, still restrains INEC from recognising state congresses organised by the Mark-led caretaker committee. And a deregistration suit against the ADC remains pending.

CTN assessment: The PDP faces an existential crisis. Five federal lawmakers quitting in three days is not a trickle — it is a potential flood. Governor Makinde’s expected departure would be the final confirmation that the party is splintering beyond repair ahead of 2027.

4. THE AVIATION SHUTDOWN THREAT: N9 BILLION DEBT — DEADLINE PASSED

The situation:

The Aviation Ground Handlers Association of Nigeria (AGHAN) issued a final ultimatum to domestic airlines over outstanding debts exceeding N9 billion.

The timeline (as reported):

· April 20, 2026: Initial letter to the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON)
· April 27, 2026: Final seven-day ultimatum issued
· April 30, 2026: Three-day final notice issued
· May 6, 2026 (Wednesday): Deadline for service withdrawal

What AGHAN said:

In a letter dated April 30, 2026, jointly signed by AGHAN President Olaniyi Adigun and Vice President Ahmed Bashir, the association expressed frustration over the airlines’ “continued silence and failure to make any concrete commitment towards clearing the debts” despite the initial seven-day ultimatum.

The letter read in part: “This continued lack of response has further heightened the financial and operational strain on our members… Consequently, we are constrained to issue a final notice of three days for the settlement of all outstanding obligations, failing which our members shall proceed with the withdrawal of services to all indebted airlines, without further recourse.”

The five handling companies involved:

· Skyway Handling Company of Nigeria (SAHCO) Plc
· Nigerian Aviation Handling Nigeria (NAHCO) Plc
· Butake Handling Company
· Precision Handling Company Limited
· Swissport Handling Company

Outcome as of Saturday:

CTN is still tracking whether the withdrawal of services was implemented on May 6 or a last-minute intervention averted the shutdown. The association had notified key stakeholders, including the Minister of Aviation, the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), and the Department of State Services (DSS), of the potential implications for safety, security, and the larger economy.

CTN assessment: This is a classic debt standoff with no easy resolution. Airlines genuinely cannot pay. Ground handlers genuinely cannot sustain operations. The government may need to intervene.

What CTN will track next week: Confirmation of whether flights were disrupted and any government intervention.

5. THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ: OIL AT $120+ — PETROL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE

The situation:

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disrupted, driving global crude oil prices to their highest levels since 2022.

The numbers as of this week:

Brent crude has climbed past $126 per barrel. The disruption has left several oil tankers stranded, further constraining supply. Nearly one-fifth of global crude oil supplies normally pass through the Strait.

Why prices are rising:

The effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical shipping route — has triggered sharp rises in the prices of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel worldwide. Industry analysts attribute the rally largely to growing tensions in the Middle East, alongside tightening supply conditions in key oil-producing regions.

What this means for Nigerian petrol prices:

Despite operating a deregulated fuel pricing regime, Nigeria remains among the lowest-priced petrol markets globally, with PMS selling at about $0.9 per litre compared to the global average of $1.5 per litre. However, energy analysts caution that prolonged volatility in global crude oil prices could eventually push domestic pump prices higher.

Nigeria’s current price advantage has been supported by improved local supply conditions, particularly increased output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has helped stabilise fuel supply and cushion the immediate impact of rising international oil prices.

CTN assessment: Global oil prices are at four-year highs. The Strait remains closed. Nigeria’s price advantage is holding for now due to Dangote refinery output, but prolonged disruption will eventually force domestic price increases. The government’s paradox — swelling oil revenues alongside potential pump price hikes — continues.

What CTN is tracking: Daily vessel transit data through the Strait and any NNPC price adjustments.

6. OTHER KEY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEK

ATIKU HEADS TO THE UNITED STATES

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is set to visit the United States to engage policy and institutional stakeholders on Nigeria’s deepening security, governance, and economic crisis.

According to his Media Adviser, Paul Ibe, Atiku will spotlight:

· Alarming deterioration of security across the North-West, North-East, and Middle Belt
· Rising cases of kidnapping and organised criminality nationwide
· Surging inflation and naira depreciation
· Declining trust in public institutions ahead of the next election cycle

Atiku maintained that discussing Nigeria’s internal challenges abroad “is not an act of disloyalty but a necessary step, given Nigeria’s strategic importance and global relevance.” He added: “Only Nigerians will decide Nigeria’s leadership, but international partners have a legitimate interest in the stability, governance standards, and democratic health of a country as strategically important as Nigeria.”

CTN assessment: Atiku is repositioning himself as the voice of responsible opposition — and now as a candidate in the ADC primary alongside Amaechi and Hayatu-Deen. His US trip is likely aimed at both international credibility and domestic political positioning.

TINUBU HEADS TO FRANCE, KENYA, RWANDA

As Atiku eyes the US, President Bola Tinubu departed Abuja on Sunday, May 3, on a visit to France, Kenya, and Rwanda. The concurrent foreign trips by the President and a leading opposition figure highlight the intensifying political season.

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PROMISE FOR NEXT WEEK

CTN will continue tracking these stories and bring you updates on:

1. NDC Momentum: Whether the NDC provides verifiable registration data and unveils its full manifesto.
2. ADC Primary Race: How the Atiku-Amaechi-Hayatu-Deen contest shapes up ahead of the May 13 form sale deadline.
3. Seyi Makinde’s Next Move: Whether he officially announces a defection to APM or another platform.
4. PDP Collapse: Whether more federal lawmakers follow the five Oyo Reps out of the party.
5. Aviation Shutdown Fallout: Confirmation of whether flights were disrupted and any government intervention.
6. Hormuz & Petrol Prices: Tanker tracking data and any movement on pump prices.
7. Atiku’s US Trip: Outcomes of his engagements and any statements upon return.

No fluff. No spin. Just the truth.

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CTN — Tracking what shapes Nigeria’s future, and the world that shapes Nigeria.