US Intelligence: Iran’s Power Structure Likely to Survive Military Assault

A classified assessment by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) has reportedly concluded that even a large-scale military assault on Iran by the United States would be unlikely to dismantle the country’s entrenched clerical and military leadership structure.

According to details first reported by The Washington Post, the intelligence report warns that Iran’s political and security institutions are structured in a way that would allow them to survive significant external attacks, raising doubts about the effectiveness of any attempt to forcibly remove the country’s leadership.

The report was completed about a week before the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28. It examined several possible outcomes, including scenarios involving a limited strike targeting key Iranian leaders and a broader campaign aimed at destabilizing the country’s political institutions.

Sources familiar with the findings told the newspaper that in both cases, the intelligence community concluded that Iran’s clerical and military establishment would likely maintain continuity of power even if the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed.

According to the report, Iran’s leadership has established protocols designed to ensure a smooth succession process in the event of the Supreme Leader’s death, making it difficult for external military action to dismantle the ruling structure.

The findings come as former US President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested the possibility of an extended military campaign aimed at reshaping Iran’s leadership. Trump had previously stated that he intended to “clean out” the country’s current leadership and potentially install a new ruler.

However, the intelligence assessment suggests that such ambitions could face significant obstacles, as Iran’s governing system is built around powerful institutions—including the clerical establishment and the military; that are capable of maintaining authority even during periods of crisis.

Analysts say the report highlights the complexity of regime change efforts in Iran and underscores the resilience of the country’s political system despite external pressure.

The White House has not officially commented on the intelligence findings, while Iranian officials have repeatedly dismissed US threats of regime change, insisting that the country’s political structure remains stable.