Analysis
2027 POLL: ADC/COP’s NORTHERN PRESIDENTIAL GAMBIT
By Ehichioya Ezomon
Among the big political parties in the race for the 2027 General Election, only the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has endorsed a sole presidential candidate in President Bola Tinubu who, also, is currently the only candidate representing Southern Nigeria in the election.
But for his rolling-stone rhetoric, and crisis in his platform, the 2027 ticket for former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi would’ve been cast in stone by now under the Labour Party (LP), which he used to ply his momentous candidacy from Southern Nigeria in 2023.
Obi’s romance with the Coalition of Opposition Politicians (COP) – which’s adopted the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the special purpose vehicle (SPV) to challenge President Tinubu’s re-election bid – has left him virtually roaming in the political wilderness.
As for ex-Rivers State Governor and former Minister of Transportation, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, his aspiration had more traction in 2023, when he placed a distant second to Tinubu at the primary, than in 2027. Having no visible structure to his name, his undisguised animus towards Tinubu is propelling his Southern bid that may land him the running mate slot, or left disappointed entirely!
Being a first-term president, Tinubu’s the privilege to declare early his interest in re-election by exploiting his “Right Of First Refusal (ROFR).” But without much ado, he’s gotten a “first shot” at the presidency for a second term, courtesy of all organs of the APC at federal, state, local government and ward levels, the governors, lawmakers and other stakeholders of the party across Nigeria.
It’s strategic, though, that the President’s received a reprieve from going into a gruelling and potential-for-crisis primary election, as he and his administration face severe economic and security headwinds amidst threats by the COP to terminate his government in 2027.
To achieve the opposition’s goal to throw Tinubu out of Aso Rock Presidential Villa, Abuja, and sack the APC from the governance of Nigeria, the ADC’s declared the collapse of its structures, to enable the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar-powered and led coalition leadership to drive the process towards 2027.
Ahead of the make-or-mar presidential contest, the wave-making ADC needs the tact, discipline, transparency and Solomonic wisdom to pick its flagbearer among highly-ambitious, and fiercely-individualistic contenders, who see themselves as unmatched for the job.
They include thrice presidential candidate, Alhaji Abubakar; Messrs Obi and Amaechi; and former Kaduna State Governor and ex-Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai.
It’s uncertain if former Senate President and ex-Kwara Governor Bukola Saraki; former Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Mallam Abubakar Malami, and other aspirants lurking in the shadows are in the running for president.
The presumption in political circles is that whoever the ADC picks as its presidential candidate will automatically become the standard bearer of the COP that faces scrutiny if truly it’s a coalition, or a gathering of disparate politicians looking to bolster their chances to gain the ticket, failing which they’ll revert to their mother platforms to run for president. This explains why some of the gladiators in the COP are hedging to defect to, and register as members of the ADC.
So, how do the opposition politicians tackle the daunting task of selecting, from among them, the candidate to face President Tinubu – a familiar but formidable foe, who defeated Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Obi to second and third positions, respectively, in the February 25, 2023 presidential election?
At this juncture in the race for 2027, going solo, as Atiku and Obi did in 2023, may result in a similar outcome: Tinubu wins the election, and leaves Atiku and Obi to lick their wounds, and blame alleged “electoral malpractice” for the avoidable wrong choice of running on separate tickets.
Whereas in 2023, Atiku and Obi singly scored 6.9m votes and 6.1m votes, and each failed the election; had they contested on a joint ticket, their combined total of over 13m votes – a margin of lead of 5m votes – would be enough to overwhelm the 8.7m votes secured by Tinubu, and give them the Presidency on May 29, 2023.
The BIG QUESTION is: Can Atiku and Obi bury their individual ambition, and the one step down for the other as the presidential candidate in 2027? It’s doubtful due to a number of factors, principally the “unwritten” rotation of the Presidency between the North and South of Nigeria every eight years since the return of democracy in 1999.
Southern Nigeria kicked off the rotation in 1999 via former Head of State, retired Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo of the PDP, who handed over in 2007 to President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who died three years after in 2010, with his successor, then-Vice Goodluck Jonathan, contesting and winning the 2011 poll under the PDP.
Dr Jonathan’s presidency “distorted” the swinging rotation of power between the North and South. Had he allowed a northerner to complete the four years (2011 to 2015) remaining in Yar’Adua’s eight-year tenure, there wouldn’t be talk, till date, about the “South shortchanging the North of its presidency.”
The question remains which party supports rotation of the presidency at any tenure? Whenever they’re out of power, the opposition parties don’t recognise rotation, and aren’t on the same page with the ruling party, thus creating a wiggle room to circumvent zoning at every election cycle!
For instance, between 2015 and 2023, it’s presumed that the APC – which won the 2015 presidential poll through retired ex-Head of State, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari – was representing the Northern bloc’s rotation of the presidency, and would return power to the South after Buhari’s eight-year tenure.
Hence no major party fielded a candidate from the South to mount a challenge to Buhari’s presidency. But the opposition PDP, via Atiku, a northerner, rubbished the rotation principle, and dared the APC and LP that presented Southern candidates for the 2023 poll.
For 2027, the opposition and Atiku are again poised to confront the APC and Tinubu. So, Atiku or any other Northern opposition candidate winning the election would abridge the 2023 return of power to Southern Nigeria, and further distort the rotation between the North and South.
This is the dilemma that might burden especially a section of the ADC and the coalition in picking their presidential candidate for 2027. For starters, Atiku – floating the COP and leading the members to the ADC – has one objective: to clinch the ticket, and meet Tinubu at the poll!
This qualifies to label the ADC as “Atiku Democratic Congress” (my copyright (c)) with several things already going for him in the platform, including the choice of “indirect primaries” to pick the candidates for elective offices; and PDP members dissolving into the ADC, reportedly starting in Atiku’s North-East zone stronghold.
Looking at the presidential materials in the ADC/COP, none can defeat an “old warhorse” Atiku where the language of the game is availability of nationwide structures, and deployment of Naira and hard currencies to woo the “beautiful-bride-delegates.”
If Atiku gets the ADC/COP ticket, it’ll leave the Southern aspirants, including Obi and Amaechi, in limbo, and may spur an unending crisis going into the 2027 poll. But there’re two possible mitigating factors: All the ADC/COP aspirants support Atiku’s candidacy; and Atiku picks Obi or Amaechi as running mate.
Yet, neither of the choices is a problem solver, as Southern voters, and supporters of those denied the ticket – particularly the “Obidients” who propelled a “politically-structureless” Obi to the third position in the 2023 presidential contest – may revolt against the ADC/COP and Atiku in 2027.
In a worst-case scenario, Obi may jettison the coalition – as he did in 2023 when he ditched the PDP – and fall back on the LP for his presidential bid, which his ardent supporters vow is “non-negotiable,” even as some want him to accept pairing, as running mate, to any Northern candidate “so long as it will lead to removing Tinubu and the APC from power in 2027.”
Will Obi accept to be a running mate, or stand only for the top position? As of now, he’s neither here nor there. He’s ambivalent in statements and interviews on the issue. Below are his responses to quizzing on his 2027 aspiration and the platform to realise the dream. He apppeared on Channels TV’s ‘Sunday Politics’ on July 6, 2025:
On running only for president, Obi said: “I’m going to contest for the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and I believe I am qualified for it (the position).”
On being a running mate to Atiku in 2027, Obi said: “This is not in play; nobody has ever discussed that (with me). People assume so many things. Nobody has ever discussed with me whether I am going to be A or B or C. I am part of the coalition which will be able to produce a president with the capacity and compassion to save this country.”
On leaving the LP, Obi said: “Where we are now, the coalition might have other parties that will come together, like it did in the past and change the name of the party. But right now, we have adopted one party. The other ones are coming in; so, we cannot say we are going to leave or stay but what is constant now is that we have all agreed to work together.”
And on if he’s joined the ADC, Obi said: “Today, I remain in the Labour Party, but we have all agreed to work in coalition for the 2027 elections. For that, we have adopted the ADC, but as we grow, other parties and individuals will still come on board. What we did was the unveiling, but we are still going to bring other people and individuals under the same umbrella. For now, we want a better country for everybody.”
It remains the same scratchy-and-patchy affair for Southern Nigeria in the opposition camp! Will the aspirants, particularly Obi, diss rotation of the presidency between the North and South, and settle for the vice presidential slot to a Northern candidate in 2027? That answer is blowing in the wind!
* _Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria. Can be reached on X, Threads, Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp @EhichioyaEzomon. Tel: 08033078357_
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Countries hosting United States military bases in the Gulf region are increasingly facing the consequences of the escalating conflict between Iran and the United States, as missile and drone attacks spill into their territories.
Recent retaliatory strikes by Iran have targeted U.S. installations across the Middle East, including locations in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. These nations, though not direct participants in the conflict, have found themselves absorbing its impact due to their strategic hosting of American bases.
The crisis intensified following a February 28 offensive reportedly carried out by the United States in partnership with Israel against Iran, amid tensions over Tehran’s nuclear and missile programmes. In response, Iran launched widespread attacks on U.S. military assets and allied locations across the region.
In the UAE, air defence systems have intercepted hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles, along with over a thousand drones since the conflict began. However, some strikes penetrated defences, hitting key locations in Dubai and causing casualties, infrastructure damage, and flight disruptions.
Similarly, Saudi Arabia has reported repeated drone and missile attacks targeting regions including Riyadh and the Eastern Province, with most threats intercepted.
Qatar also recorded multiple attacks, including a major strike on the Ras Laffan gas facility operated by QatarEnergy, which caused significant damage and triggered emergency response efforts.
Other Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, have also intercepted numerous projectiles aimed at critical infrastructure such as airbases and airports.
Security experts say the attacks highlight the strategic risks associated with hosting foreign military bases. While such bases offer defence cooperation, training, and deterrence, they also make host nations potential targets during conflicts.
Professor Joshua Bolarinwa of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs noted that powerful nations like the United States maintain overseas bases to project influence and strengthen alliances, with dozens located across the Middle East.
However, analysts warn that the presence of these installations creates a trade-off between enhanced security cooperation and increased exposure to geopolitical conflicts.
As tensions persist, Gulf states continue to maintain a delicate balance benefiting from military partnerships while managing the growing risks of being drawn deeper into a widening regional conflict.
Analysis
Ozoro Festival Scandal Sparks National Debate on ‘Weaponised Traditions’ and Cultural Reform
The controversy surrounding the Ozoro Festival in Delta State has ignited a nationwide debate over harmful cultural practices, following viral videos showing acts of sexual violence and widespread outrage across Nigeria.
The scandal has led to the arrest of six suspects by the police, including a community leader, but many Nigerians argue that the response falls short of justice and fails to address deeper cultural issues.
Critics have described the Ozoro Alue-Do Festival as a “weaponised tradition,” accusing it of reinforcing misogyny and enabling abuse under the guise of cultural celebration. Some members of the Isoko community, however, insist the issue is being misrepresented.
A female indigene, who spoke anonymously, condemned what she described as systemic discrimination against women within the culture, alleging that harmful practices are often excused and victims silenced.
“Women are blamed even in cases of abuse, while perpetrators are shielded,” she said, pointing to long-standing traditions that, in her view, enable injustice.
But cultural analyst Anote Ajelouruo cautioned against sweeping generalisations, arguing that the festival’s origins must be understood within historical context.
He noted that fertility rites were common in many ancient societies and said isolated incidents of misconduct should not define an entire cultural heritage.
“Every society had practices shaped by limited knowledge at the time. What matters is ensuring such traditions are not hijacked or abused,” he said.
Lessons from Ibadan
Observers say reform is possible, pointing to the transformation of the Oke’Badan Festival in Ibadan, which has evolved from a chaotic and unsafe event into a structured cultural celebration.
Journalist and historian Temilade Adeyemi recalled that the festival was once notorious for harassment of women, with vulgar displays and public misconduct.
Today, however, it is widely regarded as a symbol of cultural pride, featuring organised performances and safer participation for women.
Path to Reform
Experts say any attempt to reform the Ozoro Festival must be driven by the community, with traditional leaders playing a central role in redefining its purpose.
They also stress the importance of accountability, urging authorities to ensure that those arrested are prosecuted to rebuild public trust.
Increased participation of women in planning and decision-making is seen as critical to reshaping the festival into a safer and more inclusive event.
Analysts further recommend sustained public education and media engagement to highlight positive cultural values while discouraging harmful practices.
Uncertain Future
Despite the outrage, questions remain over whether meaningful reform will take place or if the festival will continue to attract criticism.
For now, attention remains on both community leaders and law enforcement authorities, as Nigerians watch closely to see whether the incident will mark a turning point or another missed opportunity for change.
By AVM Rtd Akugbe Iyamu MNSA fsi
Extreme weather conditions are unexpected, unusual or severe weather events that fall outside normal patterns, often causing significant disruption, damage to infrastructure, and environmental destruction.
Examples include heatwaves, intense hurricanes, flooding, severe droughts, and tornadoes. These events are becoming more frequent due to climate change.
Nigeria is a country perpetually under elections frenzy: campaigning, off cycle and other electoral activities. These political manifestations always offered little attention to key areas of the environment that threatens economic growth and development, security and poverty, inequality and hunger. As of early 2026, Nigeria hosts over 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) driven from their homes by conflict, insecurity, and climate disasters. The vast majority of this displacement is concentrated in the North-East and North-West regions, with around 3,900 camps and host communities providing temporary shelter. Currently, Africa is experiencing intensified extreme weather events driven by climate change, primarily manifested as severe droughts, devastating floods, and extreme heatwaves. These events, such as the 2020-2023 Horn of Africa drought and 2024 regional flooding, are becoming more frequent, severely impacting food security, agriculture, and infrastructure.
For instance the death situation in Kenya has risen to 66 and Ethiopia 125 deaths with 11,000 displaced. This is a clear and present danger to Africa and is likely to stretch the existing response measures. At this point NIHSA, NiMet and other agencies need to be called out to show visible signs to the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction. At this point, the country need more emphasis in advising all stakeholders to shift from reactive to proactive climate-informed planning to ensure food security and protect infrastructure. Nigeria need to step up preparation against what we see coming as extreme weather in 2026. From the situations in Ethiopia and Kenya, it is obvious that 2026 will be characterized by variable rainfall and cyclone bomb. We have seen prolonged dry spells, and higher-than-average temperatures early in the year that have threatened the health and security of Nigerians. Based on the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) unveiled by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) on February 10, 2026, the country need to do more. Judging from the heavy snow in the northern hemisphere, nigeria need key preparations that include using AI for better forecasting, tailored agricultural advice, and flood warning systems.
2026 should not be treated like other years. With insecurity, poverty, inequality, high taxation, higher borrowings and higher energy costs, negligence will unravel the economy and underbelly of Nigeria energy security system. Time to act is now because there are too many negatives conflating the country and we have to solve the issues of environmental challenges because when you lack the structure, you attract rupture.
The Federal Government, through the National Orientation Agency (NOA) should be promoting the dissemination of the SCP to local farmers to ensure it directly informs field decisions.
AVM RTD AKUGBE IYAMU MNSA fsi
CONSULTANT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ANALYST ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES
PRESIDENT ASSOCIATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE PRACTITIONERS