Taiwan Raises Alarm Over ‘Unpredictable’ China’s Growing Military Presence

Taiwan has warned that China is becoming increasingly “unpredictable” as Beijing steps up its military presence and strengthens its control of the air and sea around the island, according to Taipei’s latest annual assessment of the Chinese military threat.

Taiwan’s defence ministry said the regional security situation was continuing to deteriorate, pointing to China’s frequent military patrols, exercises and operations around the Taiwan Strait. The ministry said Beijing was using these activities to improve its ability to control Taiwan’s surrounding airspace and waters.

The assessment comes amid sustained tensions between Beijing and Taipei. China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has repeatedly refused to rule out the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and maintains that its future should be determined by its people.

A key concern highlighted in the report is China’s growing emphasis on joint blockade and control operations.

Taipei said recent Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have focused on controlling the island’s external sea lanes, using combinations of military aircraft, naval vessels and coast guard ships.

According to the assessment, the objective would be to cut Taiwan’s external transportation routes and establish an encirclement around the island in the early stages of a potential conflict. Taiwan said such operations could also target its command-and-control systems and air-defence capabilities.

However, the report also assessed that China does not currently have the capability to conduct a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan.

Taipei’s concern is therefore focused not only on a conventional invasion but also on China’s ability to gradually tighten military pressure and potentially isolate the island.

Taiwan’s assessment also said China’s military was studying lessons from recent conflicts, including the war in Ukraine and the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

The report said Beijing was examining the effectiveness of relatively inexpensive drone swarms, as well as weaknesses exposed in air-defence systems, ammunition supplies, industrial mobilisation and military logistics during recent conflicts.

Taiwan said the experience of the US-led war against Iran could provide China with information about the challenges of sustaining a major military campaign and maintaining adequate supplies of ammunition and air-defence interceptors.

Taipei also highlighted what it described as an unprecedented purge of senior Chinese military officers, saying the shake-up had contributed to greater uncertainty about decision-making within the People’s Liberation Army.

The assessment comes as China continues to conduct military activities around Taiwan on an almost daily basis.

Taiwan’s defence ministry said that between August 30 and August 31, it detected four Chinese military aircraft, six Chinese naval vessels and four official ships operating around Taiwan. Three of the aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line and entered Taiwan’s northern air-defence identification zone.

Taiwan said it responded by deploying combat air patrols, naval vessels and coastal missile systems to monitor the activity.

The latest warning comes as Taiwan accelerates efforts to strengthen its military capabilities.

Taipei has been placing greater emphasis on drones, missiles, asymmetric warfare capabilities and the defence of strategically important islands such as Penghu.

Reuters reported last week that Taiwanese forces on the Penghu Islands were stepping up preparations for a possible Chinese attack, while civilians were also being trained in emergency response and logistics.

Taiwan has also been seeking to expand its military drone capabilities, arguing that lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East demonstrate the growing importance of unmanned systems in modern warfare.

The latest assessment underscores the increasingly delicate security situation in the Taiwan Strait, where regular Chinese military activity, Taiwan’s efforts to strengthen its defences and continued US support for Taipei are adding to tensions between Beijing and Washington.