Far-Right AfD Takes Strong Lead in German State Election, Exit Polls Show

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has emerged with a commanding lead in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt, according to exit polls, putting the party on the verge of a historic breakthrough in one of Germany’s eastern states.

Exit polls for German public broadcasters ARD and ZDF put the AfD at about 44.5%, more than double its result in the previous state election. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) was a distant second with about 18.5%.

The result, if confirmed, would represent the AfD’s strongest performance in a German state election and give it a potentially unprecedented opportunity to lead a state government. No far-right party has governed a German state since the end of World War II.

However, the exit polls did not immediately establish whether the AfD had won enough seats for an outright majority. That distinction is crucial because Germany’s mainstream parties have maintained a political “firewall” against forming governing coalitions with the AfD.

The strong AfD performance represents a major setback for the CDU, which has dominated Saxony-Anhalt politics for more than two decades.

The party’s roughly 18.5% showing would mark a dramatic decline compared with its previous performance. The result also comes at a challenging time for Chancellor Merz’s federal government, which has faced voter dissatisfaction over economic difficulties, immigration and other domestic issues.

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund celebrated the projected result as a historic achievement and argued that voters were sending a strong message to Germany’s political establishment.

The party has campaigned heavily on immigration, nationalism and opposition to policies pursued by the mainstream parties.

The key question is whether the AfD can actually form a government.

If the party falls short of an outright majority, it would need support from another party to govern. But Germany’s established parties have repeatedly rejected cooperation with the AfD, making coalition negotiations potentially difficult.

The Left Party, Social Democrats and Greens were all projected to remain in the state parliament, while the position of the BSW party could also prove important in determining the balance of power.

Turnout was reported to be exceptionally high, at roughly 76%, underscoring the significance voters attached to the election.

The outcome will be closely watched beyond Saxony-Anhalt. A successful AfD-led government would represent a major development in Germany’s post-war political landscape and could influence debates over the party’s role ahead of future national elections.

The figures are exit-poll projections and remain subject to change as official results are counted.