Nigeria Elusive Response to The Deepening Global El Nino Crisis

BY AVM (RTD) AKUGBE IYAMU MNSA fsi 

Nigeria can be difficult, funny, frustrating, hopeful and completely contradictory sometimes between breakfast and lunch time. The current unfolding disaster due to el Nino has captured plenty of that and the current preparations feels like a good excuse to revisit our entire disaster management systems and response strategies.

The challenges of el Nino crisis are not necessarily the inadequate rainfall, it is the wrong amount of downpour at the wrong time whereby farmers in Nigeria cannot survive under such weather shock. Currently, Nigeria food inflation has risen from 8.6% to 20.3% between January and July 2026. I consider this very concerning figures because when rainfall becomes unpredictable the direct consequences for farmers are low yields. Equally, when agricultural yields fall, harvest falls and supply tightens and when all these are added to the current affordability crisis, it further exacerbate a living crisis that has crossed the border between what is affordable and who can afford to survive.

For poorer households, it is a case of what they can put on the table and not necessarily the abstract discussion on climate change. That is why a reengineered climate change strategy is required to manage the FAO projected 34.7 million people that will face acute hunger in 2026. Consequently, the discussion about el Nino must move beyond agriculture to include the country’s abundant water resources. What el Nino will bring is the escalated reduction in access to portable water that will manifest as a challenge to many households, farmers, industries as rainfall variability complicate their already precarious situation of water resources. For me, the problem of Nigeria is not the absence of climate information but the distance and timeliness of the information to the people who need to use them.

Nigeria need to set the necessary climate policy even at a cost to itself but must do so within global laws and regional cooperation and commitment. Nigeria must protect her citizens from the rampaging el Nino crisis by moving away from warnings to preparations and not wait for the future. I say this against the temptation to dismiss el Nino crisis and climate change will be a costly mistake because forecast may contain uncertainty but that does not invalidate any potential risks.

As can be seen globally, el Nino will eventually become weaker and the next climate change will unfold but the concern is whether Nigeria will continue to respond to climate events after the disaster have occurred. This is because el Nino has shown how weather patterns harden into climate disaster. In view of this, Nigeria need to coordinate response and management of weather patterns by understanding the underlying principles and emplace precision and intervention of how Nigeria will be affected and evolve protections accordingly. Globally, technology, scientific expertise and institutions exist but what is lacking in Nigeria is the coordination, funding and the will to act before loses become visible. That is why I consider a national response that look at a single narratives of flood or drought inadequate to serve the purpose of the country.

The country’s response measures and strategies must gradually evolve like those witnessed in other countries especially the developed ones. This can be achieved by nurturing a system that continuously assesses the weather, monitor soil, crops and water resources and convert the results to actionable recommendations for farming and agriculture. All these will need investment in a process that look at her strategies and ideas and explore other possibilities for solutions to the many climate challenges that face the nation. As things stand now, we have limited guarantees that the next disaster management will not be worse than the previous one.

AVM (RTD) AKUGBE IYAMU MNSA fsi

PRESIDENT ASSOCIATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE PRACTITIONERS

CONSULTANT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ANALYST ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES AND COMMENTATOR ON NATIONAL ISSUES

You can send your views and comments to iyamuken65@gmail.com or 07057447442. Messages only