NiMet Projects October Rainfall Cessation in the North as Black Flood Threat Looms Over 11 States

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency has projected that the 2026 rainy season will begin to recede in October across the northernmost parts of the country, even as the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency warns of a second wave of flooding driven by dam releases in October and November.

According to NiMet’s 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction, rainfall cessation is expected around October 6 over Sokoto, Katsina, Jigawa, and Yobe states. This will be followed by cessation over most northern states between October 14 and 20.

For the central and inland states in the South, the rainy season is expected to end from November 7 through December 1.

Coastal states such as Lagos, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom, along with parts of Ondo, Edo, and Abia, will see rainfall continue until December.

But October also carries a significant flood threat. The Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency’s 2026 Annual Flood Outlook identifies October and November as a Medium to High risk period, driven by what it calls the “Black Flood” — a phenomenon caused by dam releases combined with late rainfall.

NiHSA lists Kogi, Niger, Delta, Anambra, Benue, Kebbi, Rivers, Bayelsa, Adamawa, and Cross River as the states with communities at high risk during the October-November window.

The agency’s outlook indicates that 4.2 million hectares of cropland remain at risk during this period.

The Human and Environmental Development Agenda, a civil society group, has warned that rice farmers in floodplain states should harvest before October to avoid total crop loss.

Maize farmers were urged to plant early, while fadama farmers were cautioned to complete vegetable harvests before October.

HEDA Executive Secretary Sulaimon Arigbabu said early preparation and use of the forecast could help reduce losses and protect livelihoods.

He called on governments to activate extension services, support farmers, and intensify community sensitisation.

In Ogun State, the government has already issued a flood alert for September and warned that rainfall in inland areas would decline from October into early November.

Commissioner for Environment Ola Oresanya said the period could still bring river and coastal flooding due to prolonged rainfall, controlled overflow from Oyan Dam, and tidal fluctuations.

Meanwhile, NiMet’s August forecast update warned that a Super El Niño event could alter rainfall patterns through October, with wetter conditions expected in parts of the North and drier weather in sections of the South.