Russia Says Diesel Supplies Could Rise as Global Fuel Market Faces Pressure

Russia says it could increase diesel exports to between three million and 3.5 million metric tonnes a month by the end of 2026, potentially exceeding the volumes announced by US President Donald Trump under a new arrangement aimed at easing fuel shortages and reducing prices.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak made the announcement on Monday, October 12, saying Moscow had the capacity to restore exports to levels recorded before Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries and restrictions on overseas sales disrupted supplies.

Trump announced on October 9 that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets following a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump said an initial shipment of more than 300,000 metric tonnes would be supplied immediately, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and a further one million tonnes shortly afterwards.

The US administration has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian fuel to facilitate the arrangement. The move represents a significant shift in Washington’s approach to restricting Moscow’s energy revenues following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Novak said the additional supplies could help balance global demand and supply. He also claimed that diesel prices had already fallen by between five and six per cent in response to the agreement. That assessment has not established how much of the reported price movement can be attributed directly to the deal.

Russia’s diesel exports have suffered significant disruption following Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and Moscow’s own restrictions on overseas sales. Before the attacks intensified in 2024 and 2025, Russian exports exceeded three million metric tonnes per month, according to Reuters.

The agreement has drawn criticism from Ukraine and some US lawmakers, who argue that easing restrictions could provide Moscow with additional revenue to finance its continuing war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has criticised the decision, pointing to continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

The deal is also intended to address pressure on US fuel prices, which have weighed on truckers, farmers and other businesses dependent on diesel. The issue has become politically sensitive ahead of the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3.

However, analysts have questioned whether the announced shipments will be sufficient to bring about a sustained reduction in prices. The initial volume cited by Trump is equivalent to less than one day of US diesel consumption, according to figures reported by Reuters.

It also remains unclear how quickly Russia can restore its broader export capacity while its refineries face continued disruption. Novak’s forecast of three million to 3.5 million metric tonnes per month refers to Russia’s potential overall exports by year-end, rather than a confirmed monthly delivery commitment to the United States.

The announcement highlights the competing priorities surrounding the agreement: Washington is seeking additional fuel supplies and lower prices, while Moscow is looking to restore energy exports and revenue. The arrangement’s long-term impact on fuel markets and the war in Ukraine remains uncertain.