Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan Leads First Informal Poll in Race to Become Next UN Chief

Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan has emerged as the early frontrunner to become the next United Nations Secretary-General, after securing the strongest support in the first informal “straw poll” conducted by the 15-member UN Security Council.

The confidential, non-binding vote is the opening stage in the process of selecting a successor to António Guterres, whose second five-year term expires at the end of 2026. While the result does not determine the eventual winner, diplomats say it provides the clearest indication yet of where support currently lies among Security Council members.

According to diplomats familiar with the vote, Grynspan received 10 “encourage” votes, one “discourage” vote, and four “no opinion” votes, placing her ahead of the six other candidates competing for the world’s top diplomatic position.

Former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett finished second with nine “encourage” votes, while Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), placed third with seven encouraging votes in what diplomats described as a stronger-than-expected performance.

The UN Secretary-General is chosen through a series of secret straw polls held by the Security Council.

Council members cast one of three responses for each candidate:

• Encourage
• Discourage
• No opinion

These initial rounds do not reveal whether a negative vote comes from one of the Security Council’s five permanent members; China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, or the United States, each of which holds veto power. In later rounds, color-coded ballots identify whether any permanent member opposes a candidate, making those votes especially significant. Ultimately, the Security Council must recommend a single candidate to the UN General Assembly, requiring at least nine affirmative votes and no veto from a permanent member.

This year’s contest has attracted particular attention because many diplomats believe it is time for the UN to appoint its first female Secretary-General in the organization’s 80-year history.

Grynspan, who currently heads the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), has built an international reputation through her work on sustainable development, debt relief, economic recovery and global cooperation. She previously served as Costa Rica’s Vice President and as Secretary-General of the Ibero-American General Secretariat.

Despite Grynspan’s early lead, diplomats caution that the race remains highly competitive.

Other candidates include:

Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile;

María Fernanda Espinosa, former President of the UN General Assembly from Ecuador;

Macky Sall, former President of Senegal; and

Olara Otunnu, Uganda’s veteran diplomat and former UN official.

Several more rounds of voting are expected over the coming weeks and months, with support often shifting as candidates gain or lose momentum behind closed doors.

Although informal, the first straw poll is closely watched because it helps identify viable candidates and encourages governments to consolidate support.

Diplomats note that Grynspan’s strong opening performance positions her as a serious contender, but her chances will ultimately depend on whether any of the Security Council’s permanent members decide to exercise their veto. A single veto would effectively end her candidacy regardless of broader support.

The Security Council is expected to hold several additional straw polls through the coming months before narrowing the field. Once consensus begins to emerge, the Council will recommend one nominee to the General Assembly, which traditionally approves the recommendation by acclamation.

With the process still in its early stages, diplomats stress that the contest remains open. However, Grynspan’s strong showing has made her the candidate to beat as the race to lead the United Nations enters a critical phase.