Romania’s presidential election has entered its final stretch, with right-wing candidate George Simion leading the pack with around 30% of the vote, according to exit polls. The election is a rerun of the November 24 poll, which was annulled due to allegations of campaign fraud and Russian interference. The initial election was won by radical outsider Calin Georgescu, but he was barred from participating in the rerun.

As no candidate is projected to secure more than 50% of the vote, a runoff between the top two candidates is expected on May 18. Simion’s main competitors are centrists Nicusor Dan, the Bucharest Mayor, and Crin Antonescu, a liberal representing the governing Social-Democrat and National Liberal coalition.

The election outcome is being closely watched in European capitals, Washington, Kyiv, and Moscow, given Romania’s strategic importance as a transit route for weapon systems and ammunition to Ukraine. Romania also hosts a US missile defense shield at Deveselu and three major airbases used for NATO’s air policing missions near Ukraine’s border.

Simion’s campaign has been marked by public resentment towards Romania’s financial support for Ukrainian refugees, although he denies being pro-Russian. “This election is not about one candidate or another, but about every Romanian who has been lied to, ignored, humiliated, and still has the strength to believe and defend our identity and rights,” Simion posted on X.

Security expert George Scutaru expressed “prudent optimism” that one of the centrists will win the runoff, saying, “Forget about any more help to Ukraine if Simion becomes president.” Meanwhile, Romanians are divided in their opinions about the candidates. Ionut, a satirical writer, voted for Simion in the first round but now leans towards Nicusor Dan. “Romanians are less angry now,” he believes, given the country’s recent joining of the Schengen land-borders.

Ana, a management consultant, supports Nicusor Dan, saying, “I want to vote for both continuity and change… Continuity in Romania’s relationship with Europe, but change as far as corruption is concerned.” The diaspora vote, with a million Romanians registered to vote abroad, could significantly influence the final result.